How good is your contract?

Playing matchpoints at yesterday’s club game, partner and I had a nice auction to 6♥.  The opening lead was a small heart, won in hand as South followed with the ♥Q.

West ♠   AK95 ♥   AT9642 ♦   Q ♣   AK

East ♠   2 ♥   KJ87 ♦   753 ♣   J9643

What is your declarer plan?

Recognizing the value of the long club suit in dummy, you might be able to discard your losing diamond on a club, enabling you to take all thirteen tricks.  The play sequence to maximize the chances of establishing a club for a diamond discard would start: win the heart, cash ♣AK, lead a heart to dummy drawing the outstanding defensive trump, ruff a club, play ♠A and ruff a spade with dummy’s third trump.  If an extra club is not yet established, ruff another club, reach dummy with another spade ruff and cash the ♣J to pitch a diamond.

That’s pretty.  But is it smart?  What happens if clubs split worse than 4-2 and an early club is ruffed in with the outstanding defensive trump?  Then you are down in a cold slam.

At matchpoints your play decision is affected by your evaluation of how you think you are doing on this hand relative to the field.  Expecting that few would reach the 25 point slam, I think it is best to ensure the contract.  Draw the second trump and then cash the high clubs.  You retain some chances for thirteen tricks — maybe the ♣Q falls in three rounds, or, if the ♣T is felled in two rounds on your left, you can take a ruffing finesse against the ♣Q on your right, pitching your diamond if there is no cover.

As it turns out, playing more aggressively for thirteen tricks would have worked.  But playing safely for twelve maximized your mp expectation, because +980 was worth 12 of 13 matchpoints.

The whole hand:

Dealer: West Vul: #12, NS	North ♠   Q74 ♥   53 ♦   AJT9 ♣   QT52
West ♠   AK95 ♥   AT9642 ♦   Q ♣   AK		East ♠   2 ♥   KJ87 ♦   753 ♣   J9643
	South ♠   JT863 ♥   Q ♦   K8642 ♣   87