Jeff Lehman

Hard to spot

If you were declarer on the hand below, and had won the 4 lead with the A, can you spot the winning play at Trick 2?

W
West
Q9875
QJ107
8
AK10
4
E
East
A2
K95432
9
8632

 

 

 

 

W
West
N
North
E
East
S
South
21
Dbl
4
4
All Pass
(1) weak two, six card suit

Ready for Trick 2?

 

 

 

 

 

The winning play at Trick 2 is a small diamond from dummy!

You can assume that diamonds are 6-5, based upon the opening weak two bid.  Furthermore, you might reason that for North, at favorable vulnerability, to have bid only 4 with five card support, he must have lots of cards … enough to think that he can beat 4.

Here’s the whole hand.

 
19
E-W
South
N
North
K64
A86
AQ532
J9
 
W
West
Q9875
QJ107
8
AK10
5
E
East
A2
K95432
9
8632
 
S
South
J103
KJ10764
Q754
 
 
Once a diamond is played by declarer at Trick 2, the defense can establish a third round club winner easily enough, but no longer has any means to reach the club winner, as South is then exhausted of entries.  Assume that North wins the A at Trick 2 and advances the J.  Declarer can now force the A, but only North will be on lead and the two losing clubs in declarer’s hand will eventually be pitched on established spades.
Of course at the table, this did not occur.  South made a reasoned lead of the K and thus eliminated transportation on his own.  -620 would score 0 mps out of 15!
As an aside, do you think that North should have bid 5, or some call other than 4?

 


7 Comments

Marty DeneroffNovember 5th, 2012 at 11:10 pm

I am not known for my flawless judgement in these situations, but the Law of Total tricks would certainly argue that N should have bid 5D instead of 4. With EW vulnerable, about the only danger is if EW has no play for gameand 5D becomes a phantom save. But, looking at the N hand, I would expect to take only the AH and KS on defense, unless partner tends to make unusually strong weak 2’s. It sure looks like EW can make 4 of a major, so why not make them guess whether they can make 5?

Jeff LehmanNovember 6th, 2012 at 12:37 am

Hard to say, I think what North should bid.

I am not much of a LOTT fan, and would comment that North’s hand is much worse on offense than a hand with, say, 4=3=5=1 distribution. I do not think that having an eleventh diamond is better for offense than having only ten diamonds; having shortness somewhere is what counts more on offense. The North hand has lots of losers (seven if one thinks about the hand in terms of Losing Trick Count) and it is much to expect a weak two to cover many of them. I would expect around nine tricks, good chance for ten tricks, on offense with the flat North hand.

I certainly agree that having an eleventh diamond makes North hand worse on defense. Still, knowing that South has opened a, at best, KJ high suit weak two should mean that it would not surprise to have the South hand contribute a defensive trick. That gets NS to an expected total of three defensive tricks, and means that a 1-1 split of diamonds can be the fourth. Still, that is a parlay, and at the given colors, the sac might win by either paying off in a lesser minus if 4M makes or by bumping the opponents to the five level where they are likely being defeated. I feel more comfortable that 5D is best at IMPs. MPs the decision is tougher, I think.

FWIW, on a 15 top, EW score 0 for -620, 1 for -100 in 5DX, 4.5 for -50 in 5D, and 8.5 for +100 against 5H undoubled. +130 was the most common good EW score, that for 11 mps.

I would offer one more comment on the auction: I think the South hand, with 6-4 distribution, should open 3D, and not 2D. On the given layout, that would seem to be likely to produce double by West, and 5D by North. Now, the spotlight would have been on East: would he bid on to 5H or would he defend?

Steven GaynorNovember 6th, 2012 at 5:06 pm

I think North should bid 5D at any scoring. On a real good day it may make, which is one of the criteria I use to determine if a sacrifice is worth it.

I also like the idea of 3D to open (what I would have done since we play 2D as a version of mini-Roman).

Stuart KingNovember 7th, 2012 at 5:37 pm

3D looks right from the South hand, with so few major suit cards 2D is hardly going to keep the opponents silent.

I would also bid 5D as North. There are lots of ways this can work and only one where it fails.

Steven GaynorNovember 7th, 2012 at 8:33 pm

So I gave the N hand to my sweet and lovely wife and she says she would bid 3N over the X with some hope it may make. If they double that she will run to 4D where they may double again….

Jeff LehmanNovember 8th, 2012 at 5:17 am

I find it productive to rarely contest any suggestion from a spouse, but …

… Unless I find partner with two bullets, I can’t see more than eight tricks in a notrump contract, and can envisage way fewer if I am unlucky (opponents run clubs, or lead a club to RHO who then returns a spade through my king, as examples). So, deciding between responses of 4D (which might well make and is unlikely to go down more than one trick) and 3NT — each of which forces the next hand to introduce a major at the four level — I think 4D is a standout. And sorry, Gaynor family, but I doubt 4DX will happen when there are only two trumps outstanding.

But I do understand the attraction of responding 5D. That choice puts lots of pressure on the next hand, and might induce an overbidder — of which there are many at a club, where few voluntarily choose to defend — to get too high. (I don’t, however, think it is at all likely that 5D will make.)

I think form-of-scoring is highly relevant to responder’s choice of call. I like 5D response more at IMPs than at mps. At mps, it seems more important to be right, where “right” means being plus when possible. But at IMPs, a big swing can come from forcing the opponents to make a mistake by inducing them to bid 5M.

Ted BartunekNovember 9th, 2012 at 9:01 pm

I would probably have bid 5D at the table, but the more I think of it, 3NT is a nice bid. If it’s doubled, sit for it and take your minus 100. That almost has to beat what N/S can make.

3NT also muddies the water as to whose hand it really is. If E now bids 4H and you bid 5D it sounds a bit more like you are bidding to make. You may well escape a double.

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