Jeff Lehman

Hard slams to bid

Using a standard base (to be described), how would you bid these two hands from yesterday’s club game?

Board 10.

W
West
KQ10976
Q82
AQ92
 
E
East
A85
AK73
K6
AQ64

 

Assume that East opens 2NT (or do you value the control rich hand as worth a 2 opening?).  How do you get to 7?

 

Board 25 (should be vulnerable)

W
West
A973
A9
AQ742
A3
 
E
East
KQ8542
10742
6
102

 

Assume that West opens 1, East responds 1, and West raises to 4.  How do you get to 6?

 

As a “bonus” …

Board 11.

W
West
A8654
76
KQJ10
KQ
 
E
East
K973
AKJ95
62
A8

 

West opens 1.  How do you investigate slam, yet stop short given that it is slightly against the odds to avoid a loser in the trump suit? 


8 Comments

David GoldfarbJanuary 29th, 2013 at 7:49 am

Actually, the best contract on board 10 is 7NT, seeing as you have 13 ice cold top tricks. 7S could conceivably go down on a first round ruff. (It’s not very likely, I admit.) The ten point notrump bonus is matchpoints gravy.

I wouldn’t open the East hand 2C, and I think most people would be with me. West needs to recognize that he has a moose, and drive to slam. Something like:
2NT-3H; 3S-4D; 4H- would be the start. If West could bid 5C as exclusion key card here, that would be good; other than that I don’t know.

Board 25, how do you get to 6S? You don’t. On the other hand, on a club lead I don’t see any line that’s better than just finessing in diamonds, so I’m not going to lose any sleep over a 50% slam.

Board 11 is why they invented Roman Key Card Blackwood: East responds with Jacoby 2NT, or maybe with 2H, and eventually someone uses RKC and discovers that they’re missing a key and the SQ, so that slam is at best on a finesse.

LakJanuary 29th, 2013 at 3:18 pm

First hand:
2NT – 3H
3S – 4D
4H – 5C
7S on the assumption that West holds 6-2-4-1, the king of clubs or the queen of hearts for his slam try …

Second hand:
In standard 2/1
1D – 1S
4S – P.
Even if you are playing Precision and don’t need to jump:
1C – 2S
3S – 4D
I don’t see how/why you get beyond 4S. Slam chances look to be rather poor. You need the diamond finesse working and diamonds 4-3.

1S – 2H
3D – 3S
4S

East should pass now. He may bid 4NT, hear “one keycard” and then pass.

Jeff LehmanJanuary 29th, 2013 at 3:33 pm

I think the best play plan on Board 25 is being overlooked. Rather than finesse the diamond Q isn’t it better to set up a long diamond for a club pitch. A club was led, best for the defense. Play DA, ruff a diamond with a spade higher than the two (to retain entry flexibility). Then SK and, say, S8 to dummy’s ace, drawing trumps and leaving you with S97 in dummy and Q52 in hand. Ruff a third round of diamonds with SQ, lead a small spade to dummy’s higher spot and, if necessary, ruff the fourth round of diamonds. You still have the HA in dummy and the fifth diamond should be good to pitch a losing club. Conceding a heart, claim twelve tricks.

With a seven loser hand opposite an opener that has shown around 19 in support, I do think that slam should be explored, and that slam is odds on.

BrianJanuary 29th, 2013 at 4:12 pm

Jeff,

Go over your play on board 25. You are still a trick short. You pulled 2 rounds of trumps, ruffed 3 diamonds and played a trump to the dummy for an entry – that’s all 6 trumps.

DavidJanuary 29th, 2013 at 4:22 pm

On the first hand, I think that 2N should be the opener. But all the comments so far are on W taking over. I think E should take over after the auction 2N-3H-3S-4D, since the Kx of Diamonds and all the controls has to be perfect when partner makes a slam try. If E KC after 4D, W is better placed not to show the void to start, so that he can show the Q of Spades, but almost all roads at that point should lead to 7 of something.

For the second hand, I agree with Jeff. One of the rules that a good player here made, was when you hold a 6 card major, and partner makes any kind of GT, accept whatever the rest of your hand is. That rule applies here in a strange fashion. When partner shows a strong Spade hand, the 6th Spade means you should do something over 4S. Since not much appeals and it will tell the opps things, the straight leap to 6S seems like a decent shot. And for the play, totally agree with ruffing out the Diamonds. This is a textbook dummy reversal hand.

Last hand, why not start with something like a Jacoby 2N, instead of 2H and then try to catch up. You know you have at least a 9 card major suit fit to start, let partner in on it. When partner shows a decent balanced hand, and then doesnt have the Q of Spades or a 6th Spade, you can decide how lucky you feel on the hand, and bid the poor slam or stay out of it.

Jeff LehmanJanuary 29th, 2013 at 9:02 pm

Oops, right are each of you on the play issue on Board 25; there’s no trump remaining in East hand with which to ruff the C3, if it takes four rounds to set up the DQ for a pitch. This seems to make the diamond finesse a much better chance for a twelfth trick than ruffing out the DK within three rounds … although ruffing out the DK does seem best if not in slam since it retains some chance for twelve tricks while not risking losing three tricks when the diamond finesse fails.

I should probably stop my comment here, having already proposed a line of play that verified the adage about how it is better to be silent and thought a fool than to speak up and be proven one. However …

As others have noted, there’s not much to be said one way or another about reaching or missing a 50% or so slam. (Does not require diamonds to split 4-3 since if diamond finesse works, one would simply hope to take care of three of East’s four rounded suit losers by pitching a club on the DA and ruffing two of the losing hearts … no dummy reversal.) But even a die-hard Losing Trick Count maven should probably note why denominating the East hand as a seven loser hand is a little overstated. With West having shown four card spade support, it is likely that the SQ is superfluous in reducing LTC, much less valuable than, say, a side suit king … even a rounded side suit king. And opposite Kxxxxx, Txxx, x, Kx, twelve tricks is much better than 50%.

Meanwhile, it seems to me that East should still have tried for slam. Would you agree? Is 5S a reasonable try over the 4S raise? Or is there a better call available to East? Maybe just keycarding and going if pard shows the missing four and signing off otherwise?

TedJanuary 30th, 2013 at 1:11 am

On Board 25 4S shows a balanced hand. You have no reason to expect a 5422 pattern. Just as likely its 4432 or even 4333. You’ve got a lot of Heart losers to deal with and no assurance that your singleton in partner’s first bid suit will be useful in a slam.

Partner’s hand is virtually a perfect minimum and it’s still not a laydown. Haven’t tried it, but if you gave partner 10 random hands fitting this bidding, I’d be surprised if they made slam more than about 30% of the time.

I might take a shot at IMPs if I needed a major swing, but I wouldn’t bother at MP. You could easily have 2-3 Heart losers (or 2 Club losers) right off the top.

Jeff LehmanJanuary 31st, 2013 at 4:42 am

Upon further reflection and consideration of the comments above …

Board 10. How do the proposed auctions affirm that partner is cue bidding in support of spades and not in support of diamonds? How does West become informed that partner has the key red suit kings … cards which are more important than the CA? How does exclusion help: does it identify ownership of the red suit kings at a safe level?; does it clarify what is to be done with West’s fourth diamond?

What if East hand were AJx, AJxx, Kxx, AQJ? Then 6NT is best.

At the table the auction went 2NT-3H tfr-3S tfr accepted-4D-4H-6S-P. West couldn’t think of an intelligent way to get the information about the cards he wanted for a grand, and East, while he appreciated that the partnership probably had two round lead control of each suit, thought that spades might produce an overtrick compared to notrump by virtue of ruffing a diamond in his hand.

Board 11. I agree with commenters that signing off in 5S should be feasible. Although there are many better, but more complex, Jacoby 2NT agreements in use, assume the partnership uses even a simple one whereby opener’s rebid of 3NT shows a hand without a singleton or void but one that is stronger than a hand shown by a 4S rebid and weaker than a hand shown by a 3S rebid. Over 3NT by West, East can control bid 4C, West 4D, East 4H. At this point, West can keycard 4NT, and then inquire about the SQ over the 0 or 3 response. If East held the SQ but did not hold the HK, then even 6S is in much danger on a heart lead … but that is just because of the hard-to-diagnose duplication in clubs.

At the table, West chose not to bid 4NT over 4H, but rather to obfuscate by choosing 5S. East went on to 6S and, when trumps split 3-1, the contract was defeated.

Board 25. West is marked by the auction (no splinter, no 2NT opening, raise to 4S rather than raise to 3S) as having either his actual distribution or one with 4=3/2=4=2/3 distribution and 19 (or possibly an exceptional 18) HCP. (I don’t think West can be 3=3=4=3 and be both too weak for a 2NT opening and also strong enough to raise 1S to 4S.) Although the actual West hand is surely maximum for his auction in terms of controls, the hand is also minimum in terms of tricks.

In short, I am not convinced that the West hand is, overall, the maximum opined by some commenters. Add so little as the DJ and DT to the West hand – now that is a maximum! – and slam becomes an excellent proposition. That having been said, I do agree – but with some moderate reservations – with the conclusion of commenters that Pass is the wisest choice for East. As one commenter noted, there is no assurance of five level safety.

At the table, East did pass West’s 4S jump. 6S was makeable, but only by ruffing out the K-third of diamonds offside. If playing a contract of just 4S, I think that ruffing out the DK is the best declarer play. It is not, as noted earlier by commenters (but sadly, and publicly, overlooked by me), the best play for twelve tricks. However, a diamond finesse is more of a “10 if you lose or 12 if you win” proposition. By contrast, repeated diamond ruffs produces a greater assurance of at least eleven tricks – while retaining some chance at twelve. Accordingly, ruffing out diamonds seems to me to be the preferred play in a non-slam contract

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