Making 5 clubs

After a rather enthusiastic auction, you are declaring 5♣ on this layout, at favorable vulnerability.  (Board 28, March 28 morning game at Reyim.)

You notice that your side has only 16 HCP, while the rather-silent opponents have 24 HCP.  You note three possible spade losers and two certain heart losers.  Given five losers in a contract that can only afford two losing tricks, you make the favorable assumption that trumps split 2-1.

Further investigation leads to the conclusion that you are happy that you escaped a trump lead.  You would be unable to ruff three spades had the opponents led a club and continued a second club when in lead later.

You are pretty certain that diamonds are 3-5, based upon the auction.  If spades are 4-4, you need only two spade ruffs because then your fifth spade will be a winner.  You also need only two spade ruffs if spades are 5-3 and the three-card holding includes the QJ.  The odds are against the favorable spade holdings.  Are there other options?

The option I pursued at the table would land the contract if South had 3=3=5=2 distribution.  I cross-ruffed pointed suit cards for the first six tricks.  When in dummy with the third spade ruff, I cashed the ♣K, drawing a small trump from South and a trump honor from North.  I had won the first seven tricks.  I led a diamond to hand, ruffing with the ♣T from my remaining ♣AT, hoping for my eighth trick (meaning that North has no remaining clubs), and then to cash the ♣A to draw the last trump (from South) for a ninth trick and cash the two high spades for a tenth and eleventh trick.  (My plan would also work, although not be necessary, if South were 4=2=5=2.)

Alas, at the table South had been dealt a hand of 4=3=5=1 distribution.  North overruffed the ♣T with the remaining high club honor and commenced for the partnership to cash two heart tricks for down one.

Why did not South balance with a double instead of 1♦?  I don’t know.

In case readers find the table results to be interesting … The board was played eleven times at the club. Ten times my West hand was the declarer in a club contract. (The eleventh time NS played in 4♦X, down one trick [only!?] for +200 EW.) The ten club contracts were comprised of one 6♣, three 5♣ (once doubled), and six club partials (once doubled).

Nine of the ten club contract declarers won eleven tricks. Only I managed to win only ten tricks! 

I submitted this hand as a play problem to BridgeWinners website, a fascinating destination at which I spend far too much time.  http://bridgewinners.com/article/view/making-5c/?cj=first#cfirst.  You will find there some really interesting perspectives on plans that might be pursued by declarer.