Counting tricks

Playing in a club Swiss on Friday morning, partner opened 1♣ in third chair and East overcalled 1NT, ending the auction.

You are unsure which minor suit to lead from ♠Q4, ♥732, ♦KJ987, ♣953, but possibly fearing the criticism from partner of “had I bid diamonds, would you have led clubs?”, you decide to lead ♣3 (count in partner’s suit that you have not supported).

West ♠   A932 ♥   984 ♦   5432 ♣   J7
	South ♠   Q4 ♥   732 ♦   KJ987 ♣   953

♣7, T, K won by declarer.  Declarer now proceeds to cash the ♥AKQ5.  You discard a club (maybe a less greedy high diamond would have been better) and partner a high spade.  Next declarer exits with a club.  Thankfully, you learn that your club lead caught partner with AQTxx.  He cashes out the club suit and you consider what three pitches to make.

The key is to count declarer’s tricks.  He has won one club and four hearts.  The ♠A in dummy is his sixth trick.  If declarer owns the ♦A, his contract is ironclad.  And if declarer owns the ♠K, he would have cashed two spades rather than risk your side running the diamond suit.  Accordingly, you “place” both the ♦A and the ♠K in partner’s hand.  This projected placement means that declarer owns the ♠J and ♦Q to get to 15 HCP.

As you contemplate the set from partner leading the ♦A and a small diamond allowing you to run all the diamonds you have retained, you consider if anything can go wrong.

Yes, what happens if partner’s projected ♦A is singleton, thus giving declarer Jxx, AKQx, QTx, Kxx for his 1NT overcall?  In that case you must retain the ♠Q and discard two diamonds, along with only one spade.

Dealer: S, #15 Vul: NS	North ♠   KT65 ♥   JT6 ♦   A ♣   AQT62
West ♠   A932 ♥   984 ♦   5432 ♣   J7		East ♠   J87 ♥   AKQ5 ♦   QT6 ♣   K84
	South ♠   Q4 ♥   732 ♦   KJ987 ♣   953

The defender at the table, although he did find a club lead, greedily kept all of his diamonds while discarding both his spades.  1NT made when his partner forcibly exited with a spade to declarer’s jack.